In February 2025, an Instagram post featured an image that supposedly showed a black-and-white advertisement from the 1990s. In white text superimposed over a woman's face, the alleged ad estimated how much a vacation, a "basic car" and a "burger & fries" would cost 30 years later.
The image has spread online for years. For instance, a 2023 X post (archived) with the image amassed more than 7.2 million views as of this writing. The text of the purported ad read:
They say in thirty years a burger & fries could cost $16, a vacation $12,500, and a basic car $65,000. No problem. You'll eat in. You won't drive. And you won't go anywhere.
A reverse image search showed that the purported ad has circulated online since at least 2017, appearing on platforms like Reddit (archived), Tumblr (archived) and Imgur (archived). Publications such as BuzzFeed, Yahoo, UNILAD and the Daily Mail have also published it.
The ad was genuine. It was not the product of digital editing or artificial intelligence (AI) software. The New Yorker, for instance, published it in its Oct. 3, 1994, and March 13, 1995, magazine issues, according to the publication's archives.
It was unknown where or when the advertisement first appeared in print.
To piece together the ad's origin story, Snopes turned to the British stock photography agency Alamy. It hosts a picture of the ad on its website under the title "1996 TIAA-CREF print ad."
TIAA-CREF stands for Teachers Insurance and Annuity Association of America (TIAA) and College Retirement Equities Fund (CREF). Today, the organization is simply known as TIAA. Snopes contacted the company for further information about where, when and how often the in-question ad appeared in print. We will update this article if we receive a response.
Other similarly designed TIAA-CREF ads are viewable via Vintage Paper Ads, a website that sells vintage newspaper and magazine advertisements, and the blog site Boing Boing.
Todd Heyman, an advertising creative director, created the ad alongside art director Bill Bonomo. According to Entrepreneur, a magazine about entrepreneurship and small business management:
Heyman and Bonomo worked for the ad agency Ogilvy, and were given a brief by a new client. It was TIAA-CREF (now known simply as TIAA), a financial firm that provides investment and insurance products. The firm was seeking new customers and wanted to push this message: "You can count on TIAA-CREF to help ensure a comfortable retirement."
Heyman and Bonomo confirmed those details via email. They said they did not have information about when or how long, the advertisement appeared in print.
Did the ad's price predictions come true?
No matter the decade, prices on vehicles, vacations and burger meals vary greatly. Purchasers' locations as well as their income levels and taste will affect perceptions of appropriate costs.
That being said, research by personal finance website MoneyGeek found that the cost of a burger, french fries and a soda across 189 major and local restaurant chains in 50 of the largest U.S. cities increased 24% between 2022 and 2024. San Diego, Washington D.C. and San Francisco were the most expensive cities, where it costs roughly $18 for the meal. The least expensive city was Detroit, Michigan, at $8.12.
For people who cooked at home, the cost of ingredients for a home-prepared quarter-pound cheeseburger totaled $2.22 per burger in May 2024 — a 1.8% increase from the year before — according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service.
MoneyGeek also reported that the average price of a new car in 2025 was $48,401. However, that number fluctuated significantly depending on vehicle type and manufacturer.
Meanwhile, according to consumer finance website Bankrate, the average cost for a one-person, one-week vacation in the U.S. was $1,991 in 2024. With two people, that cost jumped to $3,982 and for a family of four, it reached $7,964.